The Southern Line
Florida drops 10 spots to No. 25 in ESPN's FPI after homecoming loss to South Carolina
After losing at home to South Carolina, Florida fell to No. 25 in ESPN's FPI, and its projected College Football Playoff chances dropped from 14.6% to 2.6%.
Florida's homecoming loss to South Carolina hurt the Gators in the advanced metrics as well as the standings. The Gators fell 10 spots in ESPN's Football Power Index, from No. 15 to No. 25, after Saturday's game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Gators Wire reported that Florida's FPI rating dropped 2.6 points to 12.6. That leaves the Gators just behind No. 24 Louisville (12.7) and just ahead of No. 26 Penn State (12.5). ESPN builds its projections by simulating the season 20,000 times using FPI and each team's remaining schedule.
The biggest change was in Florida's playoff outlook. The Gators came into Week 6 ranked No. 16 in the AP poll, and the model gave them a 14.6% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. After the loss, that figure is 2.6%. Their chance of winning the SEC fell from 0.8% to 0.1%. The model now gives them a 0.1% chance of reaching the national championship game and no chance of winning the title.
FPI projects Florida to finish the regular season at roughly 6.6-5.4. Its chance of winning out slipped from 0.3% to 0.2%. Bowl eligibility still looks likely but is less secure than it was a week ago. The model's chance of Florida reaching six wins fell from 95.1% to 84.5%.
The drop reflects how much the model counted on Florida winning this game. Before kickoff, South Carolina looked like one of the more winnable conference games on the schedule. Losing it in Gainesville took away a win the projections had largely assumed. The remaining SEC schedule now leaves Florida little room for another loss if it wants to stay in the at-large conversation.
The Gators did have some early success. Receiver Bailey Stockton scored a first-half touchdown past Gamecocks defensive back Judge Collier, but Florida couldn't hold on. After the game, Stockton blamed the offense's struggles on the players rather than the coaching staff, Gators Wire noted. That puts some pressure on the roster to improve before head coach Jon Sumrall's team plays again.
The result means more for South Carolina. A road win against a ranked SEC opponent gives the Gamecocks a résumé win at the midpoint of the season and some momentum heading into the second half.
ESPN's updated top 25 still has a heavy SEC presence. Georgia is No. 2, Alabama No. 5, Texas No. 6 and LSU No. 8. Tennessee (13), Ole Miss (15), Oklahoma (16), Missouri (17) and Texas A&M (21) are all ranked ahead of Florida. The Gators will have to beat teams in that group to move back up. The 20,000-simulation model will keep adjusting week to week, and right now it sees a team that will likely reach a bowl but has a slim chance of making the playoff.
