Texas A&M brings a struggling offense and a long win streak over Missouri to Columbia

Missouri has not beaten Texas A&M in 12 years. Coming off one of the best wins of Eli Drinkwitz's tenure, the No. 14 Tigers host the Aggies on Saturday with the numbers pointing their way.

In a statistical preview for SB Nation's Rock M Nation, carried on Yahoo Sports, Nate Edwards writes that this is not the A&M team that rose so quickly under Mike Elko. Drinkwitz is 0-3 against the Aggies, and the combined score of those games is 114-41. Edwards still sees a team on Saturday that Missouri can beat.

The biggest change is on A&M's defense. It has been one of the main reasons for the Aggies' recent success, but it now ranks 40th in SP+, and that rating still includes last season's results. Opponents have not always moved the ball efficiently on it, but they have gained a lot when they do. Rock M Nation's numbers put A&M 121st nationally in yards allowed per successful play and 127th in completion rate allowed. That suits a Missouri offense that is 73rd in efficiency and 27th in explosiveness. Edwards sets the target at 10 explosive plays.

This Missouri offense is built differently from Drinkwitz's earlier ones. The Tigers are 115th in rushing success rate and 32nd in passing success rate, so quarterback Austin Simmons and receiver Cayden Lee carry more of the load. A&M does defend third down well. It ranks 12th in success rate allowed there at 26.4 percent, which means Missouri needs to pick up yards on early downs.

The Aggies' offense has also slipped. Edwards credits much of its earlier production to Collin Klein, now the head coach at Kansas State. Under Klein's replacement, Hollman Wiggins, A&M is 78th in success rate and 134th in explosiveness. The running game, led by Rueben Owens, ranks 28th, but the passing game is 105th. Edwards wants Missouri to stop the run and make Marcel Reed beat them through the air. The catch is that A&M tends to run up the middle, which has been the weakest part of Missouri's run defense. Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon may or may not have Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen available. Edwards wasn't sure either would return.

A&M's offensive line could also be a target. The Aggies allow a 14.3 percent havoc rate and a 5.7 percent sack rate, and they rank 108th in pressure rate allowed. Edwards wants Missouri to reach a havoc rate of at least 20 percent. The Tigers didn't force a turnover against Florida.

The last two weeks in the conference show why a big win guarantees nothing. Ole Miss beat LSU and then lost badly to Florida. Florida climbed to No. 8 after that win and then lost to Missouri. Drinkwitz is 36-9 at home but 8-15 in 11 a.m. local kickoffs, and Saturday's game is one of them.

"It's a great season to finally punch back," Edwards wrote.

Texas A&M (3-2) plays No. 14 Missouri (4-1) on Saturday, Oct. 10, at noon Eastern on ABC. Prices for the game have not been posted yet.