Texas still has a strong CFP path after last-second loss to Oklahoma

Oklahoma came back from 10 points down to beat No. 1 Texas 27-24 on a field goal as time expired Saturday in Dallas. The loss costs the Longhorns their unbeaten record, but CBS Sports' analysis of the result argues that their College Football Playoff hopes are still in good shape.

David Cobb of CBS Sports reports that the outlet's College Football Playoff Forecaster still gives Texas a 66.8% chance to reach the 12-team field after the loss to the Sooners. His argument rests on a resume that should hold up even if Texas reaches Selection Sunday with three losses. No three-loss team has made the field in the 12-team era, but Cobb names Texas as the likeliest team to be the first if it finishes 9-3.

The main reason is the Week 2 win over Ohio State, now ranked No. 5, which Cobb expects to keep its value all season. Texas added a road win at Tennessee in Week 4. According to CBS Sports, those results gave the Longhorns a commanding lead in its resume ranking going into Week 6. Cobb expects Texas to stay in the top five of that metric even after a neutral-site loss to an Oklahoma team likely to land inside the top 40 of the CBS Sports 138.

A demanding road ahead

The schedule gives Texas both a risk and a chance. Four of its next five opponents are expected to be ranked in the Week 7 AP poll. Six of its last seven games come against teams that have been ranked in the top 16 at some point this season. Cobb names No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 17 Mississippi State, No. 14 Missouri and No. 14 LSU among the opponents still ahead. He notes that losing to teams of that quality would not wreck the resume. He also warns that Saturday's defeat will not be the last unless Texas plays a cleaner brand of football soon.

If Texas finishes 10-2, the forecaster gives it a 100% chance of making the field. Cobb contrasts that case with Vanderbilt, which missed the playoff last season as a two-loss SEC team without a win over a team that finished in the top 25 of the final CFP rankings. A 10-2 Texas would almost certainly have several wins over teams the committee ranks.

How a 9-3 resume would compare

CBS Sports' modeling finds that if every SEC team finished 9-3, only Oklahoma would have a better resume score than Texas. Cobb adds that it would be a shock if the Sooners finished with only three losses.

Based on the national picture entering Week 6, Cobb's resume ranking puts a three-loss Texas ahead of possible two-loss Big Ten teams such as UCLA, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern. Two-loss Ohio State and Oregon would rate slightly higher. Cobb also gives a 9-3 Texas a strong case against two-loss versions of Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia because its schedule is so much harder. The move to a nine-game SEC schedule makes the path tougher, but it also builds resumes like this one.

"Saturday went off track, but the season hasn't been derailed," Cobb wrote for CBS Sports.

Missouri, one of the ranked opponents still on the Texas schedule, hosted Texas A&M in Week 6.