Alabama holds at No. 5 in ESPN's FPI after first loss, to Georgia

Alabama lost for the first time this season against Georgia, but ESPN's Football Power Index still rates the Crimson Tide as one of the best teams in the country. Roll Tide Wire reported that the model now projects Alabama to finish 10.2-2.3. It gives the Tide a 32.1% chance to win the rest of their games.

The FPI also gives Alabama a 23.9% chance to win the SEC, an 82.3% chance to reach the College Football Playoff and a 10% chance to win the national title, according to Roll Tide Wire. A companion piece from Aggies Wire lists the conference teams in FPI order. Alabama is fifth nationally and second in the SEC, behind only Georgia at No. 2. Next come Texas at No. 6, Missouri at No. 7 and LSU at No. 8.

The loss leaves No. 6 Alabama at 5-1, and the next game is a hard one. The Tide play No. 14 Tennessee in Knoxville at 3:30 p.m. EDT Saturday on ABC, the 'Third Saturday in October' rivalry game. ESPN's FPI ranks Tennessee 13th in the nation with a rating of 17.2, Roll Tide Wire noted. Like Alabama, the Volunteers are 5-1.

The market expects Alabama to bounce back. Novig, one of the venues pricing the game, has Alabama favored at -277. The spread is 7.5 points and the total is 53.5. The best sportsbook price on the Tide is -275 at theScore Bet. Full prices are on the Alabama at Tennessee odds page.

With a 32.1% chance to win out, the FPI expects Alabama to drop another game this season. But an 82.3% playoff chance means the model still sees the Tide in the bracket after one loss. A road win over a ranked rival would help keep it there. A second loss in October would give Alabama little room for error.

Georgia is 6-0 and ranked No. 1. The Bulldogs host Auburn at 3:30 p.m. Saturday on ESPN. On Novig, Georgia is favored at -1011 with a 19.5-point spread, and Pinnacle's best sportsbook price is -1167. Details are on the Auburn at Georgia odds page.

Texas A&M's numbers took a bigger hit. Aggies Wire reported that the 3-3 Aggies fell seven spots to No. 21 in the FPI after losing to Missouri, with a rating of 13.7. That puts them ninth among SEC teams. The model projects a 5.7-6.3 finish for Texas A&M, with a 0.4% playoff chance and no chance at the SEC title. The Aggies host The Citadel on Saturday at 1 p.m. EDT on SEC Network+, then have a bye before a road trip to Alabama.

Missouri beat A&M and is now 5-1 and ranked 13th. The Tigers play at No. 9 Ole Miss in the third 3:30 p.m. SEC game of the afternoon. Ole Miss is favored at -203 on Novig, with a 5.5-point spread, and FanDuel's best sportsbook price is -205. Prices are on the Missouri at Ole Miss odds page.