LSU stays in ESPN's SP+ top 10 despite overtime loss at Kentucky

An overtime loss at Kentucky cost LSU ground in the polls, but ESPN's SP+ ratings still have the Tigers among the 10 best teams in the country. LSU Tigers Wire reported Monday that Lane Kiffin's team held its top-10 spot in Bill Connelly's efficiency-based model after the Week 6 defeat.

Kentucky won the game Saturday night at Kroger Field when quarterback Kenny Minchey ran in a two-point conversion in overtime, and Wildcats fans rushed the field afterward. Kentucky got a punt-return touchdown from Brook Coffman, and kicker Adam Zouagui tied the game late in regulation. LSU scored on catches by tight end Zach Grace, Roman Mothershed and Jackson Harris, but the loss dropped the Tigers to 4-2 and to No. 22 in the AP poll.

SP+ rates teams on per-play and per-possession efficiency rather than wins and losses, so a close road loss to a ranked opponent doesn't hurt a team as much there as it does in the polls. LSU Tigers Wire's breakdown has the Tigers as one of four SEC teams in the model's top 10. Georgia (28.3) beat Alabama in Week 6 but still slipped from first to second behind Ohio State (29.5). Texas sits sixth at 24.4. Alabama fell two places to eighth at 23.0 after its first loss of 2026.

The model's confidence in LSU will be tested right away. No. 16 Mississippi State (4-1) visits Tiger Stadium at noon Eastern on Saturday, Oct. 17, on ESPN and Disney+. LSU is a clear favorite. On Novig, one of the venues pricing the game, the Tigers are -471, and the spread is LSU -14.5 with a total of 59.5. DraftKings has the best sportsbook price on LSU at -535. Full prices are on the Mississippi State at LSU odds page.

The schedule gets harder from there. LSU goes to Auburn next, then hosts Texas and Alabama in back-to-back weeks to open November. Both of those teams also sit in the SP+ top 10, so that stretch should show whether the computer has LSU right. With two losses already, the Tigers have little room left if they want to stay in the College Football Playoff race.

The win moved Kentucky to 5-1 and No. 15, but the Wildcats are on the road Saturday night. They visit Oklahoma (3-2) at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on SEC Network, and the Sooners are favored. Oklahoma is -223 on Novig with a 6.5-point spread and a total of 43.5, and theScore Bet has the best sportsbook price on Oklahoma at -250. Prices for that game are on the Kentucky at Oklahoma odds page.

The Tigers' standing in SP+ and the large spread both point to the same view of LSU: one overtime loss in Lexington hasn't changed how highly the numbers rate the Tigers. If they beat Mississippi State convincingly, that view will look justified before the November games against Texas and Alabama.