The Southern Line
Texas faces a tougher CFP path after its Week 6 loss, with Florida up next
USA TODAY says Texas's Week 6 loss puts its playoff spot in doubt, and a five-game stretch that starts with Florida at home will decide it.
After its Week 6 loss, Texas no longer looks like a sure thing for the 12-team College Football Playoff. The Longhorns' next five games will likely decide whether they make the field.
That's the view of Eddie Timanus in USA TODAY Sports' Week 6 overreactions column. Timanus notes that the outlet recently laid out Texas's path to the SEC championship game. Since then, the Longhorns have lost a game they should have won on paper. The column's photo is from the first half of the Oklahoma game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and shows an Oklahoma lineman blocking a Texas punt.
USA TODAY doesn't write Texas off. Timanus says the win over Ohio State could make a difference if the selection committee is comparing résumés in December. He also thinks a 9-3 record against this schedule would probably be good enough to get in. At 4-1, though, Texas would need three wins from its next five games. Timanus thinks that can happen, but he wrote that the Longhorns have "a lot to clean up" first.
The stretch starts Saturday. No. 7 Texas hosts Florida (4-2) at noon Eastern on ABC. USA TODAY calls the Gators an "equally desperate" team that has lost two straight games decisively. Next come two more home games, against Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Timanus warns that neither will be easy. Texas then plays back-to-back road games at Missouri and LSU, and both of those teams will be chasing big wins of their own.
The market expects Texas to start the stretch with a win. On Novig, Texas is a -335 favorite to win outright. The spread has Texas favored by 10.5 points, and the total is 52.5. The best sportsbook price on Texas is -375 at DraftKings. That's a little steeper than Novig's number, but both venues have the Longhorns as clear favorites at home.
A 10.5-point line suggests the market still sees a real gap between the two teams, even after the Texas loss. For Florida, a win in Austin would end its two-game skid and save its season. For Texas, a loss would leave almost no room for error. The Longhorns would then need to go at least 3-1 over a closing run that includes both Mississippi schools and road trips to Columbia and Baton Rouge.
The same column covered the rest of the SEC race. It argues that Alabama is in better shape than its narrow loss to Georgia suggests. With Georgia the only team in the league still unbeaten, the Crimson Tide's body of work holds up. Their remaining schedule also skips both Ole Miss and Texas. Timanus says 10 wins would all but lock up a playoff spot for Alabama, and 11 could set up a rematch with Georgia in Atlanta with a first-round bye on the line.
Texas's schedule is less forgiving. With so few unbeaten teams left in the conference, the committee is likely to weigh the Ohio State win heavily. To keep it relevant, the Longhorns need to beat Florida on Saturday.
